Gas prices in Europe fell below €30/MWh in November

In November 2025, European gas prices fluctuated between €28 and €32/MWh.

Higher TTF futures prices for the month ahead, according to ICE, were recorded at the beginning of the month amid forecasts of colder weather and expectations of lower wind energy production. However, the situation changed in late November and early December.

On November 24, European gas prices fell below €30/MWh for the first time in over a year (since May 2024). This happened against the backdrop of significant LNG inflows and stable supplies from Norway, higher air temperatures, and discussions about negotiations to end the war in Ukraine.

As of December 1, the TTF base contract price had fallen to €28.2/MWh, as forecasts pointed to milder-than-usual weather in Europe in the first half of the month, which would affect heating demand in the region. In addition, Asian demand for liquefied natural gas is currently low.

Gas prices in Europe are still lower than before the 2022 energy crisis. However, additional LNG supplies from the US and other countries are expected to contribute to lower prices in the coming years. In particular, as Reuters columnist Clyde Russell notes, according to analysts at Kpler, global LNG supplies are expected to grow to 475 million tons in 2026, which is 10.2% more than forecast for 2025.

According to the AGSI platform, European gas storage facilities were 75.35% full as of December 1, 2025 (compared to 85% on the same date in 2024). This is below the 90% target set by the EC, which they were supposed to reach by this period. Despite this, the market remains relatively calm.

Meanwhile, at the end of November, Frontier Economics published a study commissioned by the German government, which states that the country should abandon its natural gas storage targets and move to a more market-oriented system. It also notes that this step may need to be backed up by a strategic reserve for emergencies.

As Frontier pointed out, the analysis showed that filling requirements made an important contribution to security of supply in the crisis year of 2022, but are now leading to significant market distortions in the long term. In particular, the difference between gas supply prices in summer and winter weakens market incentives to replenish storage facilities. The fill rate of German gas storage facilities as of December 1 was 67.14%.

It should be recalled that in October, gas prices in Europe fluctuated within a limited range. Analysts predicted that in winter, they would depend primarily on weather conditions.