Freight rates for iron ore in May are fluctuating within a narrow range

Iron ore freight rates in May 2026 are fluctuating within a narrow range.

According to Kallanish, on the benchmark Tubarao (Brazil) – Qingdao (China) route, rates stood at $36.15/t as of May 22, down 2% from the previous week ($37/t). At the end of last month (April 24), the rate was $33/t.

Meanwhile, rates on the Western Australia–Qingdao route stood at $15.25/t, slightly higher than last week’s level ($15.45/t). Over the month—since April 24—they have risen by 17.3%.

The Baltic Dry Index (BDI), which tracks rates for Capesize, Panamax, and Supramax vessels, rose to 2,991 on May 22, breaking a five-session losing streak, driven by rising rates in the Capesize segment. However, compared to the previous week, Reuters notes, it lost 5%, marking the worst weekly performance since early March.

The Capesize Index, which tracks 150,000-tonne iron ore and coal cargoes, rose by 120 points, or 2.5%, on May 22 compared to the previous session, reaching 4,954. Over the week, it fell by approximately 4.2%. The average daily earnings for vessels in this segment increased by $1,093 to $41,428.

The Panamax Index, which tracks coal and grain cargoes ranging from 60,000 to 70,000 tons, fell by 53 points, or 2.3%, from the previous session on the same date; the decline compared to the previous week was nearly 12%. The average daily earnings for vessels in this class decreased by $481 to $20,004.

In the first quarter, according to a report by Hellenic Shipping News, the bulk carrier market did not experience the seasonal downturn typical for this period. The average daily rate for Capesize vessels during the period was approximately $23,000, which is about 75% higher than last year, thanks to strong import demand from China.

The gradual ramp-up of capacity at the Simandu mine in Guinea, whose cargoes travel to China over significantly longer distances, will result in a significant increase in ton-miles in the second quarter.

The fact that the dry bulk market entered the second quarter significantly stronger than expected was also noted in a report by Galbraiths released in early May.

This was due to growth in the Capesize segment, steady demand for iron ore, and an increase in Atlantic ton-miles. According to IG, the market is currently characterized by volatility and, at the same time, a reduction in the actual supply of vessels amid uncertainty caused by the conflict in the Middle East, which gives shipowners the opportunity to maintain freight rates.

Iron ore shipments remain the main driver for Capesize (sufficiently stable Australian and Brazilian supplies, increased activity by Simandu). Demand from China for this raw material could provide this segment with a stronger foundation through the end of this year.

As a reminder, iron ore prices (KORE 62% Fe/Qingdao) as of May 15, 2026, rose by 3.9% compared to May 1—to $114.7/t CFR. Over the past month (April 17–May 15), prices rose by 5.3%, indicating a market recovery and reaching the highest price level since late May 2025.