Freight rates for iron ore fell in early June

Freight rates for iron ore fell in early June 2026 against the backdrop of a downturn in the Capesize segment.

According to Kallanish, on the benchmark Tubarao (Brazil) – Qingdao (China) route, rates stood at $33.95/t as at 12 June, 7.2% lower than the previous week (6 June). Over the month (since 15 May), rates have fallen by 8.2%.

Meanwhile, rates on the Western Australia–Qingdao route stood at $10.95/t on the same date (-24.7% compared with the previous week, 6 June).

The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) fell by 50 points, or 1.8%, on 16 June compared with the previous session, to 2,670, due to weakness in the Capesize and Panamax segments.

The Capesize Index, which tracks iron ore and coal shipments of 150,000 tonnes, fell by 142 points, or 3.5%, from the previous session to 3,911 on the same date. The average daily earnings for vessels in this class fell by $1,285 to $31,968.

In early June, the cost of transporting bulk cargo continued to fall against a backdrop of declining demand for Capesize vessels, which coincided with an increase in the number of ballast vessels.

Between 8 and 15 June, according to the Baltic Exchange, the Capesize segment experienced a difficult week due to deteriorating market sentiment. Both the Pacific and Atlantic basins were under pressure from limited demand and a lack of stable cargo volumes, with the former remaining the main source of weakness. The problems arose due to relatively weak activity among mining companies: cargo volumes remained insufficient compared with the available tonnage. The North Atlantic region provided occasional support thanks to new demand for transport and several strong orders.

In its June forecast, Fitch Ratings assesses the dry bulk shipping segment as the least affected by the war with Iran. At the same time, growth in the volume of seaborne shipments of key commodities, primarily iron ore, in 2026 is having a positive impact on Capesize freight rates.

As the agency notes, the Middle East accounts for only around 3% of global bulk trade; however, the closure of the strait has a significant impact on fertiliser exports. Capesize vessels have a very limited presence in the Persian Gulf.

The long-term impact of the war on bulk carriers remains somewhat uncertain. However, analysts believe that any shift in demand towards increased coal imports, aimed at mitigating the effects of disruptions to oil supplies, will have a positive impact on this segment.

It is worth noting that in January–March, the bulk carrier market did not experience the seasonal downturn typical of this period; instead, it entered the second quarter in stronger form than expected.