Fitch revises global GDP growth forecast in 2024 to 2.6%

Fitch Ratings has upgraded its global economic growth forecasts for 2024 in its latest Global Economic Outlook.

According to Fitch, the outlook has improved as confidence in Europe’s recovery prospects grows, China’s export potential recovers, and domestic demand in emerging markets, excluding China, shows stronger momentum.

Fitch has raised its global growth forecast for 2024 to 2.6% from 2.4% in the March review, the eurozone – by 0.2 percentage points, to 0.8%, and China – to 4.8% from 4.5%. The agency kept its forecast for US GDP growth unchanged for the current year at 2.1%.

At the same time, in 2025, the agency expects global economic growth to slow to 2.4%, as growth in the US will slow to 1.5%, and in the eurozone – accelerate to 1.5%. Analysts also expect China’s economic growth to fall to 4.5% next year as exports and government spending slow.

«The outlook for the European recovery is becoming more confident as the terms of trade and energy shock recede, energy-intensive industries start to pick up in Germany, and real wages recover. Higher real incomes will boost spending by households with strong financial buffers, while the negative impact of the ECB’s previous monetary tightening will diminish,» Fitch notes.

As GMK Center reported earlier, the World Bank has improved its expectations for global economic growth in 2024 to 2.6% compared to the forecasted 2.4% in January. In 2025-2026, growth will accelerate to 2.7% y/y. This is significantly lower than the average level of 3.1% recorded in the decade before the COVID-19 pandemic.