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Fitch Ratings expects a moderate recovery in the global steel market in 2026, maintaining a neutral outlook for the sector.
According to the latest review by the international rating agency, the decline in steel consumption in China will be offset by a recovery in demand in other regions.
The market will be supported by monetary policy easing, continued investment in infrastructure, and a gradual recovery in construction activity. At the same time, the main risks to demand recovery are geopolitical uncertainty, weakness in some production segments, and ongoing trade tensions.
Fitch analysts expect China’s steel output to decline by 4.5% y/y in 2026 due to tighter production controls and stronger trade barriers. The forecast for the country’s metal exports for next year is 109 million tons. This year, Chinese steel producers’ margins have recovered, and the agency expects further improvement due to increased efficiency and lower costs.
India will support the growth rate of steel demand thanks to sustained government spending and policy measures. Recent tax changes in the country will also boost demand from key end-use sectors and partially offset the negative impact of global tariffs. Fitch cites increased imports as a key risk to the profitability of Indian producers.
European steelmakers’ margins will be supported next year by tighter import quotas and the introduction of CBAM. Higher infrastructure and defense spending will contribute to a recovery in steel demand.
Steel producers in the US should be supported by infrastructure investment, improved demand, lower interest rates, and limited imports. Regarding the US market, Fitch Ratings expects demand there to improve by a small single-digit percentage in 2026 compared to 2025.
According to WorldSteel’s October forecast, global steel demand in 2025 will remain at 1.75 billion tons, which is practically the same as in 2024. In 2026, however, it is expected to grow by 1.3% y/y – to 1.773 billion tons.
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