Fitch raises its iron ore price forecast for 2026 to $100 per tonne

The international credit rating agency Fitch Ratings has revised its short-term forecasts for mining commodity prices upwards. The short-term forecast for iron ore prices in 2026 has been raised to $100/t (the previous estimate was $95/t). Analysts also expect the price of coking coal to rise to $220/t in 2026, compared with the previous estimate of $190/t. This is reported by SteelOrbis.

According to Fitch, commodity-specific factors — notably logistical disruptions, rising production costs and stable demand from steelmakers — continue to support prices for key raw materials used in steel production.

The projected price of iron ore for 2027 has also been revised upwards to $90/t, up from $85/t previously.

The main factors behind this adjustment were rising freight costs and transport difficulties caused by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Analysts note that the rise in fuel prices, triggered by the conflict involving Iran, has led to higher freight rates in global supply chains. These additional logistics costs have offset general concerns about the pace of global economic growth and kept ore prices at a high level.

Fitch has revised its coking coal price forecasts upwards:

• for 2026: to $220/t (previously $190/t);
• for 2027: to $190/t (previously $180/t).

This is due to actual prices since the start of the year being higher than expected, supply disruptions from key production regions, and stable global demand from the steel sector.

Furthermore, market supply is limited due to production disruptions in Australia, which is one of the world’s largest exporters of steel coal. Furthermore, domestic availability of raw materials has been affected by a mine accident in China, creating additional conditions for price increases. Despite general uncertainty in some segments of the global economy, Fitch emphasises that demand from the steel sector remains relatively high.

As reported by GMK Center, Fitch had already raised its price expectations for iron ore and coking coal for the current year in March: the forecast for iron ore was increased from $90/t to $95/t, and for coking coal from $180/t to $190/t.