Fitch has raised its forecast for iron ore prices for 2025-2026

Fitch Ratings has revised its iron ore price assumptions for 2025-2026 upward, reflecting continued healthy global demand and higher starting prices.

According to the updated estimates, the average price of iron ore with an iron content of 62% (CFR China) in 2025 will be $100/t against the previous forecast of $95/t, and in 2026 – $90/t instead of the previously expected $85/t.

At the same time, medium- and long-term expectations remain unchanged. For 2027-2028, Fitch has maintained its forecast within the range of $70/t. The agency’s analysts emphasize that the increase in short-term price expectations is due to current exchange quotations and overall stability in demand, primarily from Asian markets.

Despite this, Fitch expects global demand for iron ore to remain largely stable over the next two years, while supply will continue to grow. The agency estimates that additional supplies could reach 50-75 million tons, including from the launch of the low-cost Simandou deposit, which could provide about 20 million tons in 2026 and up to 45 million tons in 2027.

Analysts note that the expansion of supply is likely to hold back price growth in the medium term, but in 2025-2026, the market will remain supported by the current balance of supply and demand.

In addition to iron ore, Fitch has also revised its forecast for coking coal. The price assumption for 2025 has been raised to $185/t from the previous $180/t, reflecting current market prices and supply constraints. At the same time, forecasts for 2026-2029 remain unchanged at $180/t.

As a reminder, global seaborne iron ore imports in 2024 grew by 3.6% year-on-year to 1.707 billion tons. China’s ore imports last year increased by 4.9% year-on-year – to 1.274 billion tons.