(c) Unian
Expert organizations polled by the Ministry for Development of Economy, Trade and Agriculture downgraded a forecast for a fall in Ukraine’s real gross domestic product in 2020 by 1.8 percentage points, from 4.2% to 6%, according to the data of the Ministry of Economy’s consensus forecast for July.
“Ukraine shows a deeper decline than the global economy, reaching 6% in 2020,” the consensus forecast says.
At the same time, experts expect the economic growth to resume in 2021 and amount to 3.2% until the end of the next year, not 2.4% as expected earlier.
| Indicator | 2020 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|
| Nominal GDP | ₴3,964 bln | ₴4,391.4 bln |
| Real GDP, y-o-y | -0.06 | 3.2% |
| Consumption, y-o-y | -0.04 | 2.4% |
| Exports of goods and services, y-o-y | -8.2% | 4.2% |
| Imports of goods and services, y-o-y | -13.3% | 8.1% |
| Industrial production, y-o-y | -7.9% | 2.2% |
| Agriculture, y-o-y | -2.3% | 2.3% |
| Consumer price index, December on December | 105.8% | 1.06 |
| Consumer price index, year average | 103.1% | 106.8% |
| Producer price index, December on December | 1.08 | 107.1% |
| Producer price index, year average | 98.1% | 107.3% |
Besides, experts interviewed by the Ministry of Economy improved inflation forecast for 2020 by 1.2 percentage points.
Average yearly rate in 2020 is expected to be ₴27/$1. Next year, experts forecast devaluation to ₴28.6/$1 on average.
“All elements of demand will show negative trends, but the biggest drop is anticipated in investment, down to 14.8% from 20.3% in the previous consensus forecast,” the document says.
Experts also downgraded unemployment growth forecast for this year from 9.4% to 9.6%, with a downfall to 9.2% next year.
Among the main assumptions of the consensus forecast is the high possibility of a second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in H2 2020.
The consensus forecast was prepared on the basis of updated estimations by experts of the Ministry of Economy, Ministry of Finance, National Bank, and over a dozen of governmental and non-governmental organizations and companies.
As GMK Center reported earlier, in mid-April, the Ministry of Economy downgraded its forecast for a real GDP fall to 4.2% in 2020. In early August, the Ministry of Economy estimated a drop in Ukraine’s real GDP in H1 at 6.5%
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