(c) Unian
Expert organizations polled by the Ministry for Development of Economy, Trade and Agriculture downgraded a forecast for a fall in Ukraine’s real gross domestic product in 2020 by 1.8 percentage points, from 4.2% to 6%, according to the data of the Ministry of Economy’s consensus forecast for July.
“Ukraine shows a deeper decline than the global economy, reaching 6% in 2020,” the consensus forecast says.
At the same time, experts expect the economic growth to resume in 2021 and amount to 3.2% until the end of the next year, not 2.4% as expected earlier.
| Indicator | 2020 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|
| Nominal GDP | ₴3,964 bln | ₴4,391.4 bln |
| Real GDP, y-o-y | -0.06 | 3.2% |
| Consumption, y-o-y | -0.04 | 2.4% |
| Exports of goods and services, y-o-y | -8.2% | 4.2% |
| Imports of goods and services, y-o-y | -13.3% | 8.1% |
| Industrial production, y-o-y | -7.9% | 2.2% |
| Agriculture, y-o-y | -2.3% | 2.3% |
| Consumer price index, December on December | 105.8% | 1.06 |
| Consumer price index, year average | 103.1% | 106.8% |
| Producer price index, December on December | 1.08 | 107.1% |
| Producer price index, year average | 98.1% | 107.3% |
Besides, experts interviewed by the Ministry of Economy improved inflation forecast for 2020 by 1.2 percentage points.
Average yearly rate in 2020 is expected to be ₴27/$1. Next year, experts forecast devaluation to ₴28.6/$1 on average.
“All elements of demand will show negative trends, but the biggest drop is anticipated in investment, down to 14.8% from 20.3% in the previous consensus forecast,” the document says.
Experts also downgraded unemployment growth forecast for this year from 9.4% to 9.6%, with a downfall to 9.2% next year.
Among the main assumptions of the consensus forecast is the high possibility of a second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in H2 2020.
The consensus forecast was prepared on the basis of updated estimations by experts of the Ministry of Economy, Ministry of Finance, National Bank, and over a dozen of governmental and non-governmental organizations and companies.
As GMK Center reported earlier, in mid-April, the Ministry of Economy downgraded its forecast for a real GDP fall to 4.2% in 2020. In early August, the Ministry of Economy estimated a drop in Ukraine’s real GDP in H1 at 6.5%
The Nigerian metallurgical company African Industries Group has been granted 500 hectares of land in…
The Kametstal Steel Plant, part of the ‘Metinvest’ Group, has commenced its most extensive overhaul…
ArcelorMittal, Europe’s largest steel producer, is raising prices for coiled steel across Europe by €50…
Germany’s leading industrial associations have issued a joint urgent appeal to the government over the…
The European Commission (EC) has launched a public consultation on a new implementing act setting…
The Indian steelmaker Tata Steel recorded steel production of 5.82 million tonnes at its plants…