European steel distributors lowered expectations for Q4 activity

The European steel distribution sector has slightly lowered its expectations for activity in the fourth quarter. This is evidenced by the October Market Sentiment Survey conducted by the Eurometal industry association.

As noted, this view has partially replaced the cautious optimism observed in September.

“Although this is not a sharp shift, this trend reflects continued uncertainty and weak fundamentals for demand ahead of the fourth quarter,” Eurometal noted.

The forecast for inventory levels based on the October survey remained the same as in previous months. Distributors are mostly sticking to defensive strategies. Most respondents expect inventory levels to remain stable in the near term. This cautious approach signals the sector’s continued reluctance to take risks.

At the same time, October was the third consecutive month in which European steel distributors raised their price expectations. After a decline in the second quarter, sentiment has been steadily improving, and the latest survey showed the strongest positive outlook since early spring.

Although sentiment regarding prices is not yet unequivocally optimistic, more and more respondents are beginning to expect moderate growth in the coming months. This change may reflect signs of a reduction in supply, stabilization of demand, or expectations of restocking cycles in October-December.

As noted by Eurometal, despite the first signs of improvement in price sentiment, October data continues to reflect a market constrained by weak demand and low visibility. Current activity has stabilized, inventories remain stable, and both indicators point to stagnation in the sector.

However, the fact that the steel distribution sector continues to expect prices to rise may signal the beginning of a more positive trend if fundamental demand indicators begin to improve. Until then, a cautious approach will prevail.

The Eurometal survey reflects the opinions of 214 industry participants for October 2025.

It should be noted that at the end of September and in October, the global hot-rolled coil (HRC) market showed opposite trends in key regions. In particular, European prices rose under the influence of the upcoming strengthening of trade protection and the expected impact of CBAM. At the end of September, the market remained sluggish, with low demand from end users and service centers. The situation changed with the emergence of information about the European Commission’s plans to halve steel import quotas and introduce a 50% duty above the limits. This triggered a wave of price increases.