European carbon prices exceeded €90/t in January

European carbon prices (EUA, contract for December 2026) exceeded €90/t in January this year.

According to ICE, on January 15–16, 2026, the price was €92/t, which is more than a two-year high.

At the beginning of 2026, carbon prices in the EU ETS rose sharply. The main factors behind the growth, which began in December last year, are the gradual reduction in the supply of allowances as part of the reform of the emissions trading system, speculative behavior by players, and the final implementation of the cross-border carbon adjustment mechanism (CBAM). The link between carbon prices and gas prices has weakened.

At the end of 2025, investment funds confidently shifted from net short to net long positions in EUA futures. According to the Financial Times, hedge funds and other speculative investors are increasing their investments in EU carbon markets amid a looming shortage, which is pushing up prices and increasing costs for some heavy industry companies in the bloc. According to the Intercontinental Exchange, the publication notes, investment funds have sharply increased their net bets on the rise in the cost of carbon emission allowances since August last year, reaching their highest level since records began in 2018 in January 2026.

The European carbon market is actively responding to changes in the geopolitical situation. On January 20, EUA futures (December 2026 contract) fell to €84.9/t due to pressure from sellers linked to Donald Trump’s threats of new tariffs for certain EU countries and the UK. On January 29, the price of carbon allowances hit a seven-week low amid traders liquidating long positions and energy markets rising due to the United States’ toughening rhetoric on Iran.

At the end of last year, carbon market analysts expected European carbon prices to rise in 2026. In mid-December, Montel experts predicted that the average EUA price would be €92.02/t, which is about 24% higher than in 2025. ING expects the average price of emission allowances in the EU to reach €83/t this year, compared to an average of nearly €75/t in 2025.

Climate Market Now believes that in Q1, the market will aim to reach a historic high for the benchmark contract of €101.25/t. BBVA’s baseline scenario for 2026 assumes that carbon allowances will trade in the range of €80-100/t.

According to GMK Center’s forecast, by 2030, the average price for CO₂ emissions in the European emissions trading system could reach €126/t. This figure is the consensus among estimates from leading analytical institutions, including BloombergNEF, ABN Amro, Refinitiv, ICIS, S&P Global, Aurora Energy Research, and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.