EUROFER has downgraded its EU visible steel consumption forecast in 2024 to +1.4% y/y

The European Steel Association EUROFER expects an increase in visible steel consumption in the EU in 2024 by 1.4% compared to 2023 – up to 127 million tons. The previous forecast predicted an increase of 3.2% y/y – to 130 million tons. This is stated in the review of the association «Economic and steel market outlook 2024-2025, Q3.»

Expectations for an increase in visible steel consumption in the EU for 2025 are also worsened – from +5.6% to +4.1%. At the same time, consumption decreased from 137 million tons to 133 million tons.

In the first quarter of 2024, visible steel consumption in the European Union decreased by 3.1% compared to the same period in 2023, after an increase of 2.9% y/y in the IV quarter of 2023, which was due to a low comparison base. The total volume of steel consumed in January-March amounted to 31.9 million tons.

The current decline in steel consumption, which reflects weak demand, began in the second quarter of 2022 due to disruptions due to the war in Ukraine, an unprecedented increase in energy prices and production costs.

In 2024, subject to a more favorable development of industrial prospects and improved demand for steel, a moderate recovery in visible steel consumption in the EU is expected.

«The overall dynamics of steel demand remains influenced by very high uncertainty. However, over the next three quarters of 2024, some moderate improvement in visible steel consumption is expected, although consumption volumes are likely to remain well below pre-pandemic levels, «the association summarizes.

Real steel consumption in the EU in 2024 will decrease by 3.1% y/y (previous forecast – +1.7% y/y), and in 2025 – will grow by 2.4% y/y (+2.1% y/y). In the first quarter of this year, this indicator fell by 6% y/y after a 2.1% y/y drop in the previous quarter.

In 2023, the steel companies of the European Union reduced steel production by 7.4% compared to 2022 – to 126.3 million tons. In December, steel production increased by 2.7% y/y – to 9.1 million tons.