EUROFER expects steel consumption in the EU to decline for the fourth consecutive year

Steel consumption in the European Union continues to decline and, according to the European Steel Association (EUROFER), will fall for the fourth consecutive year in 2025. In its Economic and steel market outlook 2025-2026, Q2 report, the association says that both real and apparent steel consumption in the EU will decline again – by 3.3% y/y and 0.9% y/y, respectively.

Real consumption, which shows the actual use of steel by key sectors, fell by 4.7% y/y in 2024 and by 8.5% y/y in the fourth quarter alone. The expected further decline in 2025 indicates a continuation of the crisis amid low business confidence, weakening industrial production, and the lack of preconditions for a recovery in demand.

Apparent consumption, which also takes into account the dynamics of inventories, although it showed a slight increase at the end of 2024 (+0.5% y/y), decreased by 1.1% y/y for the year as a whole. EUROFER notes that expectations for an improvement in 2025 were not realized due to new risks, in particular the impact of the US trade tariffs.

Additional pressure on domestic production is exerted by the high level of imports: in 2024, its share in total consumption was 27%, one of the highest in history. Meanwhile, domestic steel supplies fell by 2.8% y/y in 2024.

EUROFER predicts that the market will recover no earlier than 2026, when apparent consumption is expected to grow by 3.4% y/y. However, the recovery will only be possible if the economic climate improves and global tensions ease.

As a reminder, EUROFER called on the European Commission to immediately implement the promised “highly effective trade measure” in response to the US decision to increase the total duty on steel imports to 50%. The organization warned that without urgent action, the European market could be flooded with cheap steel previously destined for the US market.