EU distributors have a pessimistic forecast for Q4 2024 – EUROMETAL

The industry is likely bracing itself for a challenging finish to 2024 with potential price declines

European distributors of steel and metals make a cautious and even somewhat pessimistic forecast for the fourth quarter of the current year. This is evidenced by the results of the latest EUROMETAL Market Sentiment Survey for September, based on a survey of 241 respondents.

Last month’s data shows that most respondents expect inventories to remain flat or decline slightly in the fourth quarter. This indicates their careful management against the background of market uncertainty. Previous months have shown a similar picture, with no significant expectations of inventory increases or aggressive replenishment by distributors.

The forecast of future activity for October-December, as noted, shows a clear downward trajectory. Distributors seem to be preparing for softening market conditions in the near term.

The sector’s price expectations for the fourth quarter of the current year tend to be slightly lower. There is a growing belief that prices will continue to fall. This is evidenced by the most significant answers located below the neutral axis. In the previous two months, respondents showed a more cautious stance on this matter, price expectations were more neutral or slightly negative.

Overall, the industry looks set for a challenging finish to 2024 with reduced market activity, stable inventories and potential price declines.

As GMK Center reported earlier, global prices for hot-rolled coil continued to decline during August – early September under the influence of weak demand, economic uncertainty and the pressure of high stocks. In particular, in the markets of Europe and China, offers have reached minimums since 2020. At the same time, global prices for rebars in September did not show a clearly defined trend. In the USA and the European Union, their dynamics were negative.