EU car production to grow by 2.1% y/y in 2025 – EUROFER

The European automotive industry expects a slow recovery in 2025 after a significant drop in 2024. This forecast was published by the steel industry association EUROFER in its Economic and Steel Market Outlook 2025-2026, Q1.

Production is expected to grow by 2.1%, but will remain well below the level of 2019.

In 2024, production decreased by 12.1% in the third quarter, while new car sales grew by only 0.8% (to 10.6 million), which is 2.4 million less than in 2019. This is the third consecutive quarterly decline in production, signaling the end of the positive cycle that lasted from mid-2022 to the end of 2023. The share of electric vehicles in the EU reached 13.6%, outstripping diesel cars (11.9%), but consumers still face problems with charging infrastructure.

The forecast for 2025 remains cautious. After an expected 8.4% y/y decline in car production in 2024, the recovery will be within +2.1% in the next two years, with total production remaining below the pre-crisis level of 2019. Weak demand, economic uncertainty, and delays in the development of infrastructure for electric vehicles remain the main obstacles to growth. The situation in global markets, particularly in the US and China, as well as increased competition from Chinese electric car manufacturers will be a decisive factor for European automakers.

In its previous forecast, EUROFER expected car production to grow by 1.9% y/y in 2025, after falling by 6.5% in 2024. A full recovery of the sector requires stable global economic growth, improved demand in foreign markets, and confidence in the future of the EU electric vehicle market, the association emphasizes.