Disruption of LNG supplies from Qatar will offset market surplus in 2026 – Morgan Stanley

The suspension of LNG production in Qatar is likely to offset most of the projected surplus of liquefied natural gas for the current year. This forecast was made by the Morgan Stanley banking holding company, according to Bloomberg.

According to Morgan Stanley analysts, any continuation of disruptions to LNG supplies from Qatar for more than a month will quickly lead to a shortage.

Before the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, Morgan Stanley predicted that the global LNG market, with a volume of approximately 420 million tons per year in 2026, would face a surplus of up to 6 million tons amid the launch of new projects in the US and other countries.

The bank also moved its forecast for the first shipments from Qatar’s North Field expansion project to the first quarter of 2027, removing about 1 million tons from its 2026 supply forecast.

The largest LNG plant in Ras Laffan, the agency notes, appears to have remained intact – its shutdown was announced last week, leading to a sharp rise in gas prices. The country’s energy minister told the Financial Times that any restart and resumption of supplies could take weeks or even months.

It should be recalled that in early March, European gas prices rose sharply amid escalation in the Middle East. The market outlook depends on the duration of the conflict, whose long-term nature could lead to a restructuring of trade relations.