Demand for steel in China will grow by 3% y/y in 2024 – forecast

In 2024, total steel demand in China could grow by about 3% year-on-year, according to SteelMint’s forecast.

Since 2023, the country’s economy has begun to recover, with a target economic growth rate of 5% expected in 2024.

Next year, national regulators are likely to continue to pursue an active fiscal policy and ease monetary policy, strengthen infrastructure construction, stabilize real estate development, and promote foreign trade. Interest rates on loans are still expected to have room for adjustment, especially as monetary policies in the US and EU change. Therefore, the cost of financial borrowing is expected to decline significantly, which will help stimulate investment and demand.

In addition, global manufacturing sentiment is expected to improve, which will make the export environment for China more favorable compared to 2023, including for steel.

However, the two main areas of domestic demand for steel products in the country are industrial production and fixed asset investment. China’s industrial production is expected to maintain a growth rate of 4% or higher in 2024. The performance of the equipment manufacturing sector, especially high-tech equipment with high steel consumption, will grow faster. In addition, the government is pursuing a policy of stimulating car purchases.

As GMK Center reported earlier, in January-November 2023, Chinese steel companies increased their exports of steel products by 35.6% compared to the same period in 2022, to 82.66 million tons. In November of this year, Chinese steelmakers exported 8 million tons of steel, up 3.2% compared to October.