Coking coal price to reach $220/t in 2025 – BMI

Analyst firm BMI, a Fitch Solutions company, expects coking coal prices to enjoy a limited respite in 2025, averaging $220/t, Kallanish reports.

The forecast is made against the backdrop of a gloomy global steel production outlook.

According to BMI, the slowdown in steel production growth in importing countries, with the exception of India, will continue to limit demand for coking coal and hence its prices in the short term.

“As China’s construction industry drives coking coal demand through the steel industry (which, in turn, remains in decline), we do not see a significant recovery in coking coal prices in the coming months,” the company said.

In addition, the analysts also revised their price forecast for Australian high-quality premium coking coal from $260/t to $245/t. On the supply side, BMI notes that production of this raw material in Australia remains limited.

In the long term, the analyst firm predicts that coking coal prices will be on a downward trend as global blast furnace steel production slows amid a shift to a greener economy. However, they will remain historically high in 2025-2028.

In its December review, the Australian Department of Industry, Science and Resources predicted that coking coal prices would average $211/t in FY2024/2025 (ending in June 2025) and $205/t in FY2025/2026.

In its quarterly report on resources and energy, the department notes that the coking coal price forecast is subject to high volatility, given the illiquidity of the market and the possibility of changes in steel trade flows depending on changes in geopolitical and trade policies.