Chinese steel exports will regulate demand for Supramax vessels

The growth in global steel flows last year was driven by China

Steel exports from China will affect demand for Supramax bulk carriers (deadweight 35-60 thousand tons), according to Hellenic Shipping News, citing Signal Group.

According to Signal Ocean, global steel flows reached 283 million tons last year, up more than 5% year-on-year. This growth was entirely driven by China, where external shipments of metal products reached 119 million tons in 2025.

The country increased its share of countries of origin of steel flows from 38% in 2024 to 42% in 2025. Total external flows outside China fell by 1% to 164 million tons.

The figures indicate weak domestic demand for steel in the country at the end of last year. As a rule, exports of metal products account for 8 to 10% of China’s total steel production, but last year this figure jumped to over 12%.

Steel products account for more than 41% of China’s dry bulk exports by sea, according to TSOP (Terminal Operating System) data, with 67% of this volume transported by Supramax vessels. The decline in Chinese steel exports will negatively affect demand for these vessels in the region. Signal Group also expects more steel shipments on Handysize vessels if exports decline and become more opportunistic.

As a reminder, China increased its steel exports by 7.5% y/y in 2025 to a record 119.02 million tons. In December, Chinese steelmakers exported 11.3 million tons of steel, up 13.2% from the previous month. The average export price was $679.7/ton.