China’s iron ore production fell by 7% y/y in 1H2026

Iron ore production in China for the first six months of 2026 fell by 7% compared with the same period in 2025, totalling 466.9 million tonnes. The decline accelerated significantly in June, when output fell by 19.8% year-on-year – to 70.4 million tonnes, marking the lowest monthly level on record. This was reported by MySteel, citing data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China.

Amid declining domestic production and the need to replenish stocks, Chinese steelmakers have significantly increased their purchases of raw materials from abroad. China, which accounts for around 75% of global seaborne iron ore imports, increased its imports by 6.3% year-on-year in the first half of the year to 628.9 million tonnes. In particular, June imports rose by 6.4% year-on-year, reaching a six-month high of 112.7 million tonnes, according to Reuters.

The rise in imports is taking place against a backdrop of a gradual decline in stock levels at ports. According to SteelHome analysts, port ore stocks have fallen to 156.6 million tonnes compared with March’s record high of 166.9 million tonnes. However, this level is still 19.6% higher than last July’s figures.

An additional incentive for overseas purchases has been the softening of prices caused by high supply from leading exporters — Australia, Brazil and new players, notably Guinea. On the Singapore Exchange, iron ore futures are trading at around $99 per tonne, which is significantly lower than May’s peak of $111.9 per tonne.

Experts note that, given the high levels of port stocks and the expected growth in global supply (notably due to the expansion of capacity at Guinea’s Simandou project), there are currently no grounds for sustained growth in imports or prices.

At the same time, the possible introduction of additional economic stimulus measures by the Chinese government, against the backdrop of moderate GDP growth in the second quarter (4.3% year-on-year), could prove to be a positive factor for the country’s steel sector.

As reported by GMK Center, China reduced its iron ore production by 2.8% year-on-year in 2025, to 983.71 million tonnes. Also, last year, China increased its iron ore imports by 1.8% year-on-year – to 1.26 billion tonnes; these volumes have been rising for the third consecutive year.