China increased steel exports by 7.5% y/y in 2025

Китай

China increased its steel exports by 7.5% year-on-year in 2025 to a record 119.02 million tons, according to the China Iron and Steel Association (CISA), citing customs data.

In December, Chinese metallurgists exported 11.3 million tons of steel, which is 13.2% more than in the previous month. The average price of these exports was 679.7/ton (-2.3% month-on-month).

Steel imports to the country in January-December 2025 amounted to 6.06 million tons, down 11.1% year-on-year. In December, the figure was 517 thousand tons (+4.2% month-on-month). The average price of these imports was $1,810.3/t (+11% month-on-month).

At the same time, China increased its ore imports by 1.8% year-on-year last year to 1.26 billion tons. These volumes have been growing for the third year in a row. In December, the figure was 119.64 million tons, which is 8.2% more than in the previous month, with an average price of $101.2/ton, almost unchanged from November.

Steel exports have helped offset cooling domestic demand, Bloomberg notes, as the country’s real estate crisis continues to weigh on the market. It remains to be seen whether Beijing’s latest efforts in the form of a new export licensing regime for steel will curb the growth of overseas shipments, or whether this decision will remain merely an administrative change.

In particular, as noted by SDIC Futures Co. analyst He Jianhui, this is still a seesaw effect – exports in December were stimulated by seasonal weakness in the domestic market. In addition, the rush by metallurgists to make deliveries before the start of the new licensing system contributed to the increase in volumes.

However, the expert expects that the impact of the new scheme will be limited, as foreign buyers are likely to cover the costs, given the already low domestic prices.

As a reminder, China is introducing export licenses for a wide range of steel products from 2026. Cast iron, semi-finished products, flat and long rolled products, as well as pipes and rail products will be subject to control.