China increased steel exports by 6.3% y/y in Q1

In January-March 2025, China increased its exports of steel products by 6.3% compared to the same period in 2024, to 27.43 million tons. Thus, steel shipments in the first quarter rose to their highest level since 2016. This is reported by Reuters with reference to customs data.

In March, steel exports by Chinese steelmakers increased by 5.8% compared to March last year to 10.46 million tons amid fears of increased tensions in global trade after the inauguration of US President Donald Trump in January.

China’s steel imports in January-March fell by 11.3% y/y, to 1.55 million tons, and in March – by 18.8% y/y, to 501 thousand tons. Exports of steel products from China fell by 9.1% and imports – by 4.9% compared to the previous quarter.

Imports of iron ore to China in the first quarter fell by 7.8% compared to the same period in 2024 to 285.31 million tons. In March, imports fell to their lowest level since July 2023 – 93.97 million tons. This is 0.2% less than in February and 6.7% less than in March 2024.

The March decline in China’s iron ore imports came as a surprise to analysts who had expected volumes to recover after weather disruptions in February. Back then, cyclones in Australia, one of the key suppliers, disrupted export schedules. The figure was expected to exceed 100 million tons.

“March imports missed our expectations. The reason why March imports were not back to the normal level is probably because of the lingering impact from the weather disruptions in February,” explained Chu Xinli, an analyst at Shanghai-based brokerage China Futures.

Low imports led to a 2.6% decline in port stocks and also boosted iron ore prices by 2.5%.

However, a significant recovery in supplies is expected in April.

“There should be some cargoes that have arrived but have not yet cleared customs, and therefore were not counted in imports in March. As a result, we expect to see April imports to top 100 million tons,” said Steven Yu, senior analyst at Mysteel.

Experts predict that imports in April could range from 100 to 106 million tons, as mining companies accelerate deliveries to meet their annual targets. This could support the raw materials market, especially amid record growth in steel exports from China in Q1 2025.

As GMK Center reported earlier, in 2024, China reduced steel production by 1.7% compared to 2023, to 1.005 billion tons. At the same time, exports reached a record high of 110.72 million tons, up 22.7% compared to 2023. The figure continues to grow amid weak domestic consumption. Imports amounted to 6.8 million tons, down 10.%% y/y.