China cut steel production to a four-year low in October

In October 2025, Chinese steel companies reduced steel production by 12% compared to October 2024, to 72 million tons. Compared to the previous month, the figure fell by 2%. This is evidenced by data from the National Bureau of Statistics of the PRC, Bloomberg reports.

This is the fifth consecutive monthly decline in production, resulting in steel production for January-October of this year falling to 818 million tons (-4% y/y).

Weakening consumption in Asia’s largest economy is putting pressure on Chinese steel mills, forcing them to cut production. The prolonged downturn in the real estate sector and weaker industrial growth are reducing order volumes, while excess capacity and low margins are preventing prices from strengthening. Recent government signals about the need for production discipline, which encourages mills to cut output, are adding to the industry’s caution.

The October decline was the weakest for this month since 2021, when the economy was held back by COVID-19 lockdowns. Thus, steel production in China has been declining for five months in a row, reflecting structural problems in domestic demand and chronic market oversaturation.

The reaction on the raw materials and commodity exchanges also remained negative. Rebar futures lost 0.2% on the Shanghai exchange, hot-rolled coil also fell, and Singapore iron ore futures fell 0.6% to $102.2/t, reflecting weaker market expectations for a recovery in demand in China in the near future.

As GMK Center reported earlier, Chinese steel companies reduced steel production by 1.7% year-on-year in 2024, producing 1.005 billion tons. This is the lowest figure in the last five years. Experts note that 2024 is likely to be the last year when steel production in China exceeded 1 billion tons.