Carbon price in the EU to be set at €70-80/t in Q4 – analysts

In Q4 2024, the price of carbon in the EU will be in the range of €70-80 per ton. This forecast is made by S&P Global Commodity Insights analysts.

They expect an increase in demand for carbon credits due to an increase in thermal power generation.

As of November 1, 2024, EUAs were trading at €64.33/t ($69.92/t) in CO2e equivalent, compared to the settlement price of €66.97/t on October 25. The European carbon price declined over the week amid falling gas prices and weak demand.

Prices came under pressure as investors reduced their net short positions. At the same time, electricity demand in Northwest Europe showed signs of recovery. Some analysts expect this to help prices recover in November.

At the same time, the UK maintains stable prices for greenhouse gas emission allowances. According to traders, they have fallen slightly, but demand has remained steady.

According to ICE, on the afternoon of November 1, UKAs were trading at £38.09/t ($49.21/t), compared to the settlement price of £39.19/t on October 25.
Platts estimated the nearest December contract for UKAs at £37.96/t per ton of CO2.

As GMK Center reported earlier, analysts polled by Reuters expect carbon prices in the EU to rise by 2027 as supply declines due to political measures. The average forecast for the carbon price in 2027 was €111.14/t. This is the first time the survey participants were asked about this period.

At the same time, experts have hardly changed their forecasts for 2025 and 2026. In 2025, the EUA price is expected to average €76.88/t, and in 2026 – €92.48/t. This forecast is 0.2% and 1% higher, respectively, compared to the July forecast.