BMI expects global steel production to grow by 1.2% y/y in 2024

The BMI analytical agency predicts a 1.2% increase in global steel production in 2024 compared to 2023. This is reported by Kallanish.

The slow growth rate is explained by the global economic slowdown. In addition, the deteriorating global industrial and economic outlook will put negative pressure on steel production.

On the demand side, the global economic outlook remains modest, with the manufacturing sector continuing to hold back growth in key markets. At the same time, the growth of global steel consumption in 2024 will be driven by robust demand in India.

In addition, BMI has revised its forecast for global average steel prices for 2024 downward to $700/t from $740/t. Weak demand in China may limit prices. The country’s economy continues to face a number of risks, and the most significant of them for the steel industry is the turmoil in the real estate sector.

According to the agency, since the beginning of this year, steel prices have been declining in all major markets, with a 6.9% drop in China over the period.

In the long term, BMI expects global steel prices to continue their downward trend. In 2025, they will average $730 per tonne, and in 2026-2027 – $675 per tonne.

According to the agency’s forecast, the slowdown in steel consumption growth in China and increased protectionism in the global market will prompt an increase in production in the affected countries, weaken the market and lead to lower prices in the medium term.

The report also emphasizes the beginning of a market paradigm shift, with green steel produced by EAF coming to the fore, displacing products made using the traditional blast furnace method.

As GMK Center reported earlier, global steel production in 2023 decreased by 0.1% compared to 2022 to 1.850 billion tons. This is evidenced by the global ranking of 71 steel-producing countries by the World Steel Association.