Billets prices in December were $438/t on the Black Sea market

In December, regional markets for square billets mostly saw slight price increases of up to $5 per ton (except for the Italian market, where the increase was $22), although weak demand prevailed almost everywhere. At the beginning of the month, most major markets saw a cautious upward trend due to improved sentiment in Asia. At the end of the month, the price situation stabilized amid low activity and weak demand ahead of the New Year.

On the Black Sea market for square billets (on a Black Sea FOB basis), average quotations in December remained virtually unchanged at $438/t. According to Kallanish, Turkish buyers may insist on lowering prices for Russian billets to $450–452/t CFR amid the recent weakening of the ruble. At the same time, the price of square billets on Turkey Ex-Works terms rose by an average of $5 to $523/t.

Imports of billets to Turkey in November last year fell by 1.4% compared to October, to 401,000 tons. Russia was the largest supplier in November with a volume of 111,000 tons (+14% y/y), accounting for 28% of total imports. The price of Russian billets was $457/t, which is slightly below the average import price ($464/t). According to Kallanish, Ukraine supplied 15,000 tons of billets (4% of imports) at the highest average price of $503/t.

Following changes in the DIR (domestic processing regime), Turkish buyers of billets mainly place orders on the local market. In November, local producers increased billet output by 9.4% y-o-y to 2.1 million tons, and by 5% y-o-y to 21.9 million tons in the first 11 months of last year.

According to Kallanish, Kardemir sold 55,000 tons of billets at a tender in December at a price of $505/ton (grade S235JR) and $515/ton (grade B420), which is $10 more than in November. Kardemir plans to increase its billet sales in the first quarter of 2026 to 194,000 tons, compared to 171,000 tons in the previous quarter.

According to Steelorbis, prices for billets from Tangshan (China) declined in early December, prompting consumers to replenish their inventories. In the middle of the month, the market stagnated amid the resumption of environmental restrictions on production. Meanwhile, traders were reluctant to lower prices due to uncertainty in the price environment. At the end of the period, activity in the billet market slowed due to limited cash flow among traders at the end of the year and weak demand from rolling mills amid high raw material inventories. Overall, billet prices in Tangshan remained stable in December, ranging from $417 to $423/t.

Billet offers in the Gulf countries were stable in December. According to Steelorbis, activity in this market was relatively low, especially in the import segment, as buyers insisted on lower prices. According to Kallanish, average quotations in Saudi Arabia were at $482–487/t (Ex-Works). Saudi importers shifted their focus to purchasing Black Sea billets due to competitive prices and fast delivery.

In Indonesia, quotations in December were also stable, ranging from $445–450/t (CFR).

Average prices for square billets at the end of December compared to the end of November in Italy (on an Ex-Works basis) rose by $22 to $580/t amid expectations of price increases after the introduction of CBAM on January 1, 2026. Italy is the most expensive market for billets in the sample studied.

It should be noted that in November, the global market for square billets saw mixed price trends, although overall the situation remained stable, without sharp fluctuations. At the beginning of the month, most major markets saw a cautious upward trend due to improved sentiment in Asia. By the end of the month, the price situation remained stable amid low activity and weak demand ahead of winter.

As previously reported, according to estimates by the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), the forecast prices for raw materials for 2026 and 2027 are $490.3/t (+5.1% y/y) and $501.1/t (+2.2% y/y), respectively (FOB Ukraine).