Anglo American's forecasts

Revenues from the export of raw materials will decrease due to the slowdown in China's economic growth

According to the forecast, Australia’s revenues from iron ore exports in the 2023/2024 financial year will decrease by 11% compared to the previous financial year – to 110 billion Australian dollars. This is stated in a report by the Department of Industry, Innovation and Science of the Australian Government, informs SteelOrbis.

Meanwhile, the previous forecast for FY2023/2024 was 103 billion. It was raised due to higher commodity prices, a lower-than-expected exchange rate and a small increase in overseas shipments.

It is expected that in the 2024/2025 financial year this indicator will be 93 billion Australian dollars, and the estimated price of Australian iron ore in the specified period will be $74/t.

In April-June, Australian iron ore prices fell due to a slowdown in economic growth and a slowdown in the recovery of steel production in China. If in March the spot price for this raw material was $120/t, in June it fell to $105-110/t. The recent price drop reflects a drop in demand from Chinese steel mills, which are taking blast furnaces out for repairs.

As GMK Center reported earlier, the prices of Australian coking coal by 2025 will decrease by 26.7% compared to the forecasted price for 2023 ($273/t) – to $200/t. This is stated in the Australian government’s quarterly report. Global supply of coking coal is expected to grow moderately over the next two years. At the same time, the low rate of investments in capacity expansion and new mines may act as a limitation in increasing production volumes.