Asian coking coal prices fell amid increased supply

In late August and early September 2025, the Asian seaborne coking coal market was characterized by falling prices due to increased Australian supply and weak demand.

Indian buyers took a wait-and-see approach during this period, and there were a number of unsold cargoes on the market. Buyers from this country are likely to remain cautious in the near future, monitoring global trends in coking coal prices. The situation is also affected by the current low domestic demand for steel.

At the same time, the Chinese market remained weak in early autumn as domestic prices continued to fall. In addition, there is uncertainty about the cost of coke. According to SMM, major steel mills in Hebei and Shandong provinces have started the first round of coke price cuts of 50-55 yuan/t ($7.0-7.7/t), effective September 8 (in contrast, there were several rounds of increases in August, and another was expected in early September).

According to Kallanish, the price of high-quality coking coal FOB Australia on September 5 was $185.81/t, down nearly $1.2/t from the previous week (as of August 29). Spot coking coal prices in China (EXW, Anze) as of September 5 were $198.86/t (-3.5% from the previous week).

In its monthly report, Mysteel Global expects the Chinese coking coal market to remain in a state of “tight equilibrium” in September amid weak demand and supply. The review predicts a slight downward price correction in the first half of the month due to the need for coking coal mines to sell amid declining demand from end consumers.

Most of the mines in Shanxi province that were shut down ahead of the military parade are resuming operations. However, one of the agency’s surveys showed that the restart may increase supply only slightly, as regulatory pressure to comply with mining safety requirements remains.

Mysteel notes that the long-term outlook for the market depends on the dynamics of domestic steel production and the expected recovery in metal product consumption.

S&P Global analysts noted in their August review that the third quarter of this year for the Asian coking coal market began with observations whether the downward price trend would stop due to replenishment of stocks in India after the monsoon season and a change in sentiment in China.

Demand for coking coal in India may also be supported by the continuation of restrictions on coke imports until the end of this year.

Premium coal shipments from Australia continued to face stiff competition at the beginning of the third quarter. This trend began in the previous quarter, when Indian and other Asian buyers turned to products of American and Canadian origin amid deteriorating conditions in the steel market. However, there are now signs of a recovery in Australian coal supplies despite weak demand.

Global coking coal trade volumes in the first half of 2025 fell by 6% y/y – to 172.4 million tons, according to preliminary data collected by BigMint. This was caused by a decline in steel production, an increase in supply in domestic markets, and a change in trade flows. In particular, large importers such as India and China reduced their maritime purchases.