Asian coking coal prices accelerated their decline

Offers for Australian coking coal in China from March 17 to 19 fell by $7/t, to $173/t CFR Qingdao, according to Metalplace. Since the beginning of March, quotes have fallen by 9%, and by 13.5% since the beginning of the year.

Prices for Russian coal in January-February remained stable, but in mid-March they also began to fall. From March 13 to 19, sellers’ requests fell from $123 to $115/t CFR Qingdao. China’s introduction of a 15% duty on coking coal imports from the United States did not help suppliers from Australia, Indonesia and Russia maintain prices.

Indian prices for premium Australian coking coal fell to $198/t in mid-March, CNF Paradip, from $200/t at the start of the month, according to Kallanish.

On the Singapore Exchange, futures contracts for premium Australian coking coal for April delivery were trading at $175.5 t FOB last week. In the first week of March, similar offers were at $182/t FOB.

Sellers’ quotes fell amid lower shipments. In February, seaborne coking coal imports to Asia fell to 15.85 million tonnes, a three-year low. Shipments to India fell by 6% y/y and by 25% m/m to 4.22 million t. Shipments to South Korea fell by 17% y/y and by 13% m/m to 8.47 million t.

Seaborne coal imports to China also declined due to growth in land shipments from Mongolia. At the same time, coke production in China increased by 1.6% in January-February to 81.9 million t. Low demand is confirmed by the resale by Chinese and other Asian end users of several shipments of American coking coal that were already in transit.

Stocks in Asian ports remain high, allowing buyers to expect further price declines. A factor hindering this is the steady increase in freight rates for coal transportation from Australia, South Africa and Indonesia. Freight has been rising since the beginning of the year and is due to limited availability of vessels in loading areas.

The fall in coking coal prices in the Asian region and Chinese tariffs make the European market more attractive for US suppliers. As is known, due to the cessation of production by the Pokrovsky mine, Ukrainian metallurgists are forced to switch to importing American and Polish coal.

As reported, the analytical company BMI, part of Fitch Solutions, expects the average price of coking coal in 2025 to be $220/t. Slowdown in steel production growth in importing countries, with the exception of India, will continue to limit demand for coking coal.