Ukrainian steel market in Q1: slowdown in production and trade

Ukraine’s steel market showed mixed trends in Q1 2025: production of key products mostly increased, domestic consumption and imports also recovered, while exports slowed.

In January-March, metallurgical enterprises increased pig iron production by 7.2% compared to the same period in 2024, to 1.7 million tons. Steel output increased by 2.7% y/y – to 1.73 million tons, and rolled steel output by 3.4% y/y  – to 1.43 million tons. At the same time, pig iron production decreased by 1.8% quarter-on-quarter, while steel and rolled products grew by 2.5%, respectively.

There has been a slowdown in production figures, as the average quarterly output of pig iron last year was 1.77 million tons, steel – 1.89 million tons, and rolled products – 1.55 million tons. The most successful quarters for the industry in 2024 were Q2 and Q3, when iron and steel production was close to or exceeded 2 million tons, and finished products – 1.7 million tons.

The main factors include US trade policy – new duties and anti-dumping investigations limit the access of Ukrainian products to the US market, also affecting the price environment in the EU and Asia; logistical difficulties, including higher transportation tariffs; high competition from Asian producers, etc.

Domestic consumption of steel (semi-finished products, rolled metal products) in Q1 2025 increased by 40.5% year-on-year and by 0.5% quarter-on-quarter – to 849.92 thousand tons. Imports accounted for 317.9 thousand tons (+35.9% y/y; +10% q/q). In particular, 49.7 thousand tons (+92.7% y/y) of long products were imported, and 268.25 thousand tons (+28.8% y/y) of flat products. Despite the increase in supplies, the share of imports decreased by 1.28 p.p. compared to Q1 2024.

Exports of steel products decreased by 11.2% y/y and increased by 7.1% q/q – to 903.53 thousand tons. The decline was mainly due to a slowdown in export demand for semi-finished products, down 34.8% y/y – to 294.2 thousand tons. Shipments of long products increased by 19.6% y/y – to 176.25 thousand tons, and shipments of flat products increased by 3.3% y/y – to 433.1 thousand tons.

The key products supplied to foreign markets included hot-rolled flat products (HS 7208) – 357.83 thousand tons, semi-finished products (HS 7207) – 294.2 thousand tons, cold-rolled flat products (HS 7209) – 58.45 thousand tons, and rebar (HS 7214) – 36.69 thousand tons. Ukrainian consumers imported the most coated flat products (HS 7210) – 110.79 thousand tons, hot-rolled flat products – 98.97 thousand tons, cold-rolled flat products – 32.87 thousand tons, angles (HS 7216) – 26.88 thousand tons.

Exports of pipes in the first quarter reached 136.23 thousand tons (+12.8% y/y), while imports amounted to 20.89 thousand tons (+67.3% y/y).

The main export markets for Ukrainian rolled steel products are the European Union (77.9%), the rest of Europe (10.9%) and the CIS (6.7%). Among steel importers, the first place is occupied by other European countries (59.4%), followed by the EU (23.2%) and Asia (16.9%).

“We see the beginning of negative trends due to internal and external factors affecting the Ukrainian mining and metals sector. Iron ore exports are declining, and stable steel production and pig iron exports are under threat. Negative economic trends in the European Union, exacerbated by trade wars, are also affecting the volumes and prices of Ukrainian exports. The Government’s aggressive tax and tariff policy is also having a negative impact, which is worsening the situation for the key industry, the iron and steel sector,” said Stanislav Zinchenko, CEO of GMK Center.