The situation in the metal ore mining sector in Ukraine deteriorated sharply in 2025

Conjunctural assessments indicate that the current situation in mining and steel companies looks somewhat worse than the average for Ukrainian industry. The balance of responses (the prevalence of negative assessments over positive ones) when assessing the current volume of orders in November 2025 in the metal ore mining industry was -53%, and in metallurgy -46%. For comparison, the average assessment for the industry as a whole was -36%.

At the same time, in November 2025, Ukrainian mining and metallurgical companies did not expect any significant changes in production volumes over the next three months, but the level of guaranteed capacity utilization is gradually declining. Since the beginning of 2025, the order backlog of steel enterprises has decreased from 2.5 months to 1.9 months at the end of November, and in the metal ore mining industry – from 3.2 to 1.8 months, respectively. On average across the industry, the order backlog in November was more than 4 months.

The level of negative expectations in the metal ore mining industry is also evidenced by the fact that in November, the balance of responses regarding the expected change in the number of employees in the next three months was -53%, compared to -11% in steel industry and -7% in industry as a whole. This indicates that the industry is likely on the verge of staff reductions.

A similar situation is observed with regard to expected changes in investment. The balance of responses in the metal ore mining industry (-20%) and steel industry (-5%) indicates worse investment expectations for 2026 than the industry average (4%).

The reasons for the deterioration in market conditions in the metal ore mining sector are related to the decline in global prices for raw materials, high electricity tariffs, which have already led to the suspension of operations at some enterprises, as well as a reduction in production at Ferrexpo due to non-reimbursement of VAT.

In the context of the war, the main focus of investment by mining and steel companies is on maintaining existing production capacities in working order, rather than expanding them or creating new ones. Against the backdrop of low prices for steel products on the global market, Ukrainian companies in the industry do not have sufficient financial resources to invest with a long-term perspective. A survey of companies in the industry shows that even medium-term forecasting of their activities is extremely difficult.