The EU has reduced its imports of raw materials by 11% since 2020

Between 2020 and 2025, the EU gradually reduced its dependence on iron ore imports; however, the market remained structurally import-dependent, with domestic production concentrated almost entirely in Sweden. Over six years, iron ore imports from third countries fell by 11.3%—from 77.9 million tons in 2020 to 69.0 million tons in 2025.

The peak was reached in 2021, when shipments rose by 20.2% year-over-year to 93.6 million tons, likely reflecting the post-crisis recovery in demand in the metallurgical sector following 2020. Subsequently, the market entered a correction phase: in 2022, imports fell by 12.8%, and in 2023, by another 10.5%, to 73.0 million tons. A slight recovery in 2024 of 2.6%, to 74.9 million tons, was not sustained: in 2025, imports fell again by 7.8%.

Unagglomerated ore accounted for the bulk of shipments. Imports of this type of ore in 2025 amounted to 51.1 million tons, or nearly 74% of the total volume, while sintered raw materials, including pellets, accounted for about 26%—18.0 million tons.

The trend in imports of sintered raw materials was more volatile: after growing by 31.8% in 2021, imports fell by 17.5% in 2022, by 12.1% in 2023, rebounded by 12.3% in 2024, but declined again by 17.1% in 2025. Imports of non-agglomerated raw materials declined more gradually: after a 16.1% increase in 2021, the decline was 11.0% in 2022, 9.9% in 2023, 0.9% in 2024, and 4.1% in 2025.

Exports of raw materials from the EU to third countries also declined over the period: from 16.7 million tons in 2020 to 10.5 million tons in 2025. The largest decline occurred in 2024—by 25.4% year-over-year, to 9.3 million tons—after which exports partially recovered by 13.2% in 2025.

Against this backdrop, apparent consumption of raw materials in the EU remained volatile. In 2021, it jumped by 21.3% to 109.6 million tons, but by 2022 it had fallen by 12.6%, and in 2023 by another 7.0%, to 89.0 million tons. The 1.3% recovery in 2024, to 90.2 million tons, was short-lived: in 2025, the figure decreased by 4.3%, to 86.3 million tons. Compared to 2020, apparent consumption was 4.4% lower.

Among foreign suppliers, Canada, Brazil, Ukraine, and South Africa played a key role. In 2025, Canada became the largest source of imports with a 34.9% share, supplying 24.1 million tons. Its position strengthened compared to 2020, when its share stood at 27.2%. Brazil, on the other hand, lost market share: from 23.0% in 2020 to 19.1% in 2025.

After peaking at 16.5 million tons in 2021, Ukraine reduced its shipments to 11.0 million tons in 2025, maintaining a share of about 15.9%. South Africa also reduced its volumes—from 12.1 million tons in 2021 to 7.8 million tons in 2025. The combined share of the four key suppliers remained high: from 74.8% in 2020 to 81.3% in 2025, with a peak of 86.5% in 2024.

DRI imports remain a separate component of the EU’s raw material balance, partially replacing traditional iron ore in steel production, primarily in electric arc furnaces. DRI imports to the EU in 2020–2025 decreased from 2.6 million tons to 2.2 million tons, or by 15.4%. The highest figure was recorded in 2022—2.9 million tons—after which shipments fell by 10.3% in 2023, partially recovered by 7.7% in 2024, but dropped by 21.4% in 2025. This indicates that demand for raw materials remains sensitive to the utilization of electric arc furnace capacity, scrap and natural gas prices, as well as the availability of DRI on the global market. At the same time, DRI volumes do not yet alter the overall picture: in 2025, imports of this raw material were more than 31 times lower than imports of iron ore, so iron ore remains the key iron-bearing raw material for the EU.

In-house production of iron ore in the EU fell by 4.7% between 2020 and 2025—from 29.2 million tons to 27.8 million tons. LKAB remains the main contributor, accounting for 25.9 million tons in 2025, or 93.2% of the combined production of LKAB and Kaunis Iron. After LKAB’s production fell by 13.4% in 2024 to 22.7 million tons, the company increased output by 14.1% in 2025.

Kaunis Iron produced 1.9 million tons of concentrate in 2025, compared to 1.924 million tons in 2024, meaning the figure fell by another 1.2% following a 15.7% drop the previous year. At the same time, the EU market is not limited to just these two Swedish producers. In Austria, VA Erzberg GmbH operates, mining ore at the Erzberg deposit and supplying it to voestalpine facilities in Linz and Donawitz. In Germany, Barbara Erzbergbau GmbH is involved in the extraction of low-grade iron ore, but its scale is not comparable to the Swedish assets. In Spain, Minas de Alquife resumed production in 2020 and positions itself as an important local project for European consumers. Nordic Iron Ore in Sweden should be viewed more as a promising project: the company is developing Blötberget and plans to produce high-quality concentrate, but is not yet a significant active supplier of ore to the EU market.

Overall, the data show that the EU iron ore market remains dependent on imports, while domestic production, despite its strategic role, is unable to fully offset fluctuations in external supplies and metallurgical demand. DRI imports may gradually increase the importance of alternative iron-bearing raw materials, but current volumes remain insignificant compared to iron ore imports. Therefore, in the short term, the EU balance will continue to be determined by ore supplies from Canada, Brazil, Ukraine, and South Africa, as well as LKAB’s production.