Poland maintained high scrap exports in 2025

Polish companies specializing in ferrous metal scrap operations exported 1.204 million tons of raw materials outside the European Union in 2025, which is 8.6% less than in 2024. This is the first decline in the last three years, when in 2023 exports rose to a record 1.299 million tons (+69.9% y/y), and in 2024 to 1.32 million tons (+1.4%). Despite a slight decline last year, the figure remains 70% higher than the average for 2015–2025 (710 thousand tons).

Raw material shipments from Poland declined last year amid a moderate decrease in demand from MENA and South Asian countries. Supplies to India fell by 15.7% compared to 2024, to 418,600 tons, to Pakistan by 9.5% y/y, to 80,800 tons, and to Morocco by 43.8% y/y, to 92,010 tons. Demand from Turkey increased by 2.4% y/y – to 541.96 thousand tons, and from the US – sharply by 2.2 times y/y – to 68.56 thousand tons. These countries absorbed almost 100% of Polish scrap.

Imports of scrap metal by Polish steelmakers from third countries in 2025 increased by 28.6% compared to 2024, reaching a record 340,000 tons. This indicator has remained at new levels since 2022. The reason for this is a significant increase in supplies from Ukraine, which now accounts for 99% of Polish scrap imports. Last year, 337,400 tons of Ukrainian scrap metal were sent to Poland, which is 34.4% more than in the previous year, while in 2015–2021, the average annual volume of scrap metal imports did not exceed 59,000 tons. Poland also imported 22,000 tons of raw materials from Kyrgyzstan, which is 2.3 times more than in the previous year.

Steel production in Poland grew at a minimal rate in 2025, by 0.8% y/y, to 7.17 million tons, after growing by 10.6% in 2024 and stagnating for two years in 2022–2023.

Poland has reacted critically to Ukraine’s recent decision to temporarily restrict scrap metal exports until the end of 2026. Both politicians and industrialists emphasize that Ukrainian raw materials are the main source of supply for the Polish market, accounting for the vast majority of imports from outside the EU.

The restriction is seen as a risk factor for the stability of supplies in Central Europe.

The Ukrainian side explains the decision by the need to stop re-export schemes. According to industry associations, supplies to EU countries were in fact used to circumvent the export duty of €180/t: after import, the scrap was resold, primarily to Turkey and India. The resource left Ukraine without creating added value, while domestic processing provides taxes, employment, and products for defense and reconstruction.

The actual trade structure confirms the presence of a transit element. Poland remains a major exporter of scrap to third countries, while steel production growth is minimal. This means that a significant portion of imported raw materials is not consumed domestically but returns to the global market, particularly to electric steel-making economies.

Restrictions on Ukrainian exports are more likely to change the routes of scrap metal than to create a shortage in Europe. Given the current volume of re-exports, the absence of Ukrainian raw materials on the Polish market is unlikely to have a critical impact on the production capacity of the local steel industry, but it will allow more resources to be left for domestic use in Ukraine.