Key economic indicators of Ukraine for the first nine months of 2025

Macroeconomic indicators for the first nine months of 2025 show that the Ukrainian economy has returned to minimal growth. This situation is natural for a country at war. Without additional powerful drivers, economic activity in the country will not grow, and any even slight deterioration in the military or geopolitical situation could lead to recession.

The key factors for maintaining minimal economic development in the near future are:

• intensification of missile and drone attacks on energy and gas infrastructure;
• high prices and tariffs for gas and electricity;
• devaluation of the hryvnia (the 2026 draft state budget assumes an average annual exchange rate of 45.7 UAH/USD);
• worsening labor shortage;
• lack of affordable financing and large-scale business support programs;
• global tariff wars and deterioration of the economic situation in Europe.

At the same time, the third quarter of this year showed an improvement in the economic situation. According to estimates by the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting (IER), the economy grew by 6.5% in August, which is associated with the late harvest. As a result, real GDP growth in the third quarter is estimated at 2.6% y/y, which is significantly higher than in previous periods. According to the State Statistics Service, economic growth in the first two quarters of this year was only 0.9% y/y and 0.7% y/y, respectively. The IER estimated growth for the first half of 2025 at 1.3% y/y.

At the same time, some macroeconomic indicators are already showing negative dynamics. The decline in industrial production in Ukraine in January–September 2025 amounted to 2% y/y. At the same time, the negative dynamics slowed down during the year — the decline in industrial production for the first quarter and the first half of the year amounted to 6.1% y/y and 3.9% y/y, respectively.

The situation in the construction sector is slightly better. The volume of construction work performed in Ukraine in the first nine months of the year increased by 15.5% y/y. At the same time, the industry only turned positive in the summer, as construction dynamics remained negative in January-May (-7.5% y/y).

This improvement in the industry was due to engineering infrastructure, more specifically, the urgent restoration of protective structures at energy facilities following an increase in rocket and drone strikes. In particular, according to the results of January–May, the volume of work on the construction of engineering infrastructure showed a decline of 22.3% y/y, while thanks to protective structures, the segment already showed a positive result (7.5% y/y) in nine months.

Foreign trade statistics showed growth, but the balance of trade flows is far from favorable for our economy. According to the NBU, in the first nine months of 2025, exports of goods and services decreased by 4.7% y/y – to $39.4 billion, while imports of goods and services increased by 19% y/y – to $79.5 billion.

The negative foreign trade balance continues to grow. In the first nine months, the trade deficit in goods and services reached a record $39.9 billion. This is more than the deficit for the whole of 2024 ($38.6 billion) and 2023 ($37.9 billion).

Against the backdrop of disappointing macroeconomic data, the deterioration in forecasts for the Ukrainian economy is to be expected. For the fourth time since the beginning of the year, the National Bank of Ukraine has lowered its forecast for Ukraine’s GDP growth in 2025 to 1.9% from 2.1% y/y. At the same time, investment company Dragon Capital has lowered its forecast for the current year to 1.7% from 2% y/y. Analysts explain the adjustment of their forecasts by another energy shortage, the destruction of gas production facilities, and a labor shortage.

The draft state budget for 2026 assumes an average annual exchange rate of UAH 45.7/USD and UAH 49.4/EUR. The average euro/dollar exchange rate in 2026 is estimated at $1.081 per euro, which is significantly lower than the current rate of $1.17–1.18 per euro. In this case, the estimated average annual euro exchange rate is underestimated: if the euro/dollar pair remains in the current range, the average euro exchange rate in 2026 will be 53.46–53.93 UAH.

The Ukrainian economy has reached its growth limits in wartime due to internal reserves. The previously dominant and currently prevailing factors of development — the effect of recovery after the fall of 2022, high private consumption, and international financial assistance — no longer ensure high economic activity. Ukraine needs other drivers of growth, but finding them in wartime is an extremely difficult task.