Electricity prices in Europe fell in August amid declining demand and gas prices

In the EU, average monthly wholesale prices for day-ahead trading fell overall compared to July.

August trends

According to Ember (as of September 2, 2025), this price on European markets, in particular, was:

• Italy – €109.07/MWh (-3.7% m/m);
• France – €78.01/MWh (-1.7%);
• Germany – €77.67/MWh (-13.7%);
• Spain – €69.09/MWh (-6.5%);
• Sweden – €42.4/MWh (+44.8%).

Last month, the average monthly wholesale price for day-ahead electricity in Poland was €89.64/MWh, in Slovakia – €78.9/MWh, and in Hungary – €80.29/MWh.

Last month, AleaSoft notes, most monthly average values on European electricity markets fell below €75/MWh. This was facilitated by a drop in electricity demand and a decline in TTF gas prices to their lowest monthly level since August 2024, as well as relatively stable solar generation volumes.

The futures price of Dutch TTF (October contract) in August, according to ICE, was in the range of €34-35/MWh, and on August 28 and 29, it fell to €31.6-31.7/MWh.

The situation in Ukraine

In August of this year, the weighted average purchase and sale price of electricity on the DAM in Ukraine, according to the Market Operator, increased by 3.3% month-on-month to UAH 5,420.05/MWh (€112.6/MWh at the average monthly exchange rate of the hryvnia to the euro).

Demand on the DAM last month fell by 14.1% compared to July, while supply decreased by 8.94%.

According to preliminary monitoring data from ExPro Electricity, in August, the country increased its electricity imports by 2.5% month-on-month to 264,000 MWh. Compared to June 2024, this figure decreased by 44%. Hungary continues to lead in the import structure (41%).

Electricity exports from the country in August increased by 60% month-on-month compared to the previous month, reaching 450,000 MWh. Hungary (38%) and Moldova (29%) accounted for the largest shares in its structure. In the same period of 2024, Ukraine did not export electricity.

At the end of August this year, the National Commission for State Regulation of Energy and Public Utilities (NEURC) decided to raise electricity distribution tariffs for a number of distribution system operators. The increase ranges from a minimum of 0.6% to a maximum of 48.6%. The new tariffs came into effect on September 1 this year.

A separate decision approved an increase in tariffs from October 1 for another group of regional electricity distribution companies.

In early August, the Federation of Employers of Ukraine warned the NEURC against this step, appealing to the regulator and relevant ministries. The FEU noted that this would lead to additional business costs of more than UAH 15 billion and would hit domestic industry.

The decision was criticized by Oleksandr Kalenkov, president of the Ukrmetprom association of enterprises. He recalled that in July, the NEURC adopted decisions that stimulated the first wave of price increases for industry, and a second wave followed a month later. According to him, such steps affect the cost and competitiveness of Ukrainian metal products on world markets.

Gas storage capacity

According to the AGSI platform, as of September 1, 2025, European gas storage facilities were 78.1% full (on the same date in 2024, the figure was 92.36%).

This summer, European traders faced a more challenging task of replenishing stocks amid their depletion after the winter. However, as Reuters columnist Roy Bousso notes, given the decline in demand in Asian markets, Europe can expect a surge in LNG imports in the coming months.

According to data from analytics company Kpler, which he cites, LNG imports in the region fell from an annual peak of around 11 million tons in March to 7.4 million tons in August due to weaker regional demand and increased purchases from Asia (Asian imports rose to 26 million tons last month).

However, Asian purchases are expected to slow significantly for the rest of the year due to high inventories in China and other importing countries, which will free up LNG volumes for Europe. Increased LNG imports will help Europeans compensate for reduced regional supplies due to seasonal maintenance at several Norwegian gas fields until the end of September.

Analysts note that the decline in supplies from Norway has already been factored into European gas contracts, but the market could be affected by unplanned extensions or delays in the work. For now, observers estimate that Europe is approaching the heating season much better prepared than expected.