China’s steel market in 2024: export growth and domestic consumption decline

China remains the world’s largest steel producer and exporter, but 2024 showed sharp contrasts between the domestic market and external supplies. The country’s steel production decreased by 1.7% year-on-year – to 1.005 billion tons, the lowest level in five years. Exports, on the other hand, reached a record high of 110.72 million tons, up 22.7% from 2023. These imbalances clearly reflect the deep structural problems of the Chinese economy and have a significant impact on the global steel market.

Despite the fact that China has reduced steel production, exports continue to grow amid weak domestic demand. The main factor behind the decline in consumption is the slowdown in the construction and industrial sectors, which are usually the main consumers of steel. The Chinese government continues to implement a strict debt control policy, which restricts the financing of new infrastructure projects, thereby reducing the demand for steel in the domestic market. At the same time, rising energy costs and stricter environmental standards have also led to a decline in production.

However, this situation did not prevent China from actively increasing its exports. In 2024, the country exported 110.72 million tons of steel to foreign markets, an all-time record. In December alone, exports amounted to 9.72 million tons, which is higher than the average for most previous months. The growth was driven by attractive prices offered by Chinese producers amid weak global demand. However, this pricing policy has caused dissatisfaction among other major market players, including the EU and the US, which see it as a threat to their steel industries.

The increase in exports amid a decline in domestic production indicates a change in the strategies of Chinese steel companies. Instead of adapting to weak domestic demand, they are actively looking for foreign markets. This puts additional pressure on the global steel market, especially in the face of oversupply.

As a result, although China remains the world’s largest steel producer, its domestic market is facing serious challenges. Declining consumption, a slowing economy and structural problems in the industry are forcing producers to expand exports. However, this strategy, while effective in the short term, poses serious risks to the global steel industry, which is already suffering from volatile demand and overproduction. In 2025, the key challenge for global and Chinese regulators will be to find a balance between the internal and external interests of the steel market.

“As we warned back in March-April 2024, steel exports from China exceeded 100 million tons. The upward trend in exports is not related to production in China and is only partly due to a decline in domestic consumption. In 2025, we expect continuing growing trend in exports of steel finished and semi-finished products. Also, starting from September 2025, we can expect exports of Chinese steel or steel products made with lower carbon emissions. China is adapting to the green agenda very quickly and is able to implement its ambitious strategies,” comments Stanislav Zinchenko, CEO of GMK Center.