Turkey could cut emissions by a third by 2035 with $265 billion in investments

Technological changes will drive transformation in the ferrous metallurgy and aluminum industries

Turkey could cut emissions by more than a third by 2035 with investments of $265 billion, according to a study by the Istanbul Policy Center (IPC) at Sabancı University.

The IPC report, “Turkey’s Decarbonization Roadmap,” outlines strategies for achieving zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2053. It also aims to form the scientific basis for the country’s new nationally determined contribution, which will be submitted to the UN this year.

According to the researchers, with the right policies in place, Turkey could reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 35% compared to 2021 levels (to 370 million tons) in 10 years. In particular, by 2035, carbon emissions could be reduced by 40% (to 277 million tons), which would return national indicators to 2025-2010 levels. However, the latter is only possible if the country takes sectoral measures in energy, industry, transport, construction, and agriculture.

Researchers consider one of the most important steps in the energy sector to be the gradual phase-out of coal by 2036 and the rapid installation of new renewable energy facilities (approximately 10 GW of wind and solar generation per year) and investment in 9 GW of battery storage by 2035.

The cost of the scenario, which envisages a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by more than a third over the next decade, is $265 billion.

At the same time, emissions are expected to decline steadily in the industrial sector, which includes steel, aluminum, cement, fertilizers, chemicals, and textiles.
According to the study, the main source of transformation in the ferrous metallurgy and aluminum industries will be changes in technological processes. At the same time, the cement sector poses the biggest problem due to the high level of emissions from its processes.

In early July, Turkey approved plans to launch a carbon market in order to achieve its goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions to zero by 2053.
The country’s parliament passed its first-ever climate law, which, among other things, provides for the creation of a national emissions trading system (ETS).