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Production increased by 18.1% y/y, but are still significantly lower than pre-war levels

Ukrainian steel companies increased pig iron production by 18.1% in 2024 compared to 2023, from 6 million tons to 7.09 million tons, according to Ukrmetalurgprom. The figure is still significantly lower than pre-war levels, in particular, in 2021, pig iron production exceeded 21.16 million tons. However, this level is unattainable due to the loss of Azovstal and Ilyich Iron and Steel Works of Mariupol.

Pig iron production in Ukraine was marked by an upward trend in Q2-Q3 2024 and a slight decline in Q4. In particular:

  • Q1 – 1.59 million tons (-1.3% q/q; +32.1% y/y);
  • Q2 – 1.88 million tons (+18.3% q/q; +15% y/y);
  • Q3 – 1.89 million tons (+0.6% q/q; +21.3% y/y);
  • Q4 – 1.73 million tons (-8.3% q/q; +7.7% y/y).

The recovery in pig iron production in Q2-Q3 was facilitated by the reopening of sea exports at the beginning of the year, which allowed the company to export products to distant markets. As a result, rolled steel production increased and demand for pig iron grew. At the end of the year, global demand for steel deteriorated, and energy supply problems with a parallel increase in electricity and logistics tariffs forced domestic producers to slow down production.

“Thanks to the maritime export corridor, Ukraine was able to return to the US pig iron market. In 2023, Ukraine exported about 150 thousand tons of pig iron to the US, while in 2024, according to our estimates, it will reach 800 thousand tons. Improved logistics capabilities allowed Ukrainian producers to increase capacity utilization,” said Andriy Glushchenko, GMK Center analyst.

In December 2024, Ukraine produced 565.4 kt of pig iron, up 4.1% month-on-month and 1.6% y/y. The average monthly pig iron production during the year was 590.8 thousand tons compared to 500.3 thousand tons in 2023.

According to GMK Center analysts, 2025 will be a difficult year for the industry as the global steel market is going through a crisis. Ukraine’s steel exports are likely to decline, the price situation will deteriorate, and import restrictions will tighten around the world.

As GMK Center reported earlier, pig iron production in Ukraine in 2023 decreased by 6.1% compared to 2022 to 6 million tons. In 2022, production volumes were at 6.39 million tons, with 3.5 million tons smelted in the first quarter (mainly in January-February) and only 2.5 million tons in April-December.