The World Bank forecasts global GDP growth of 2.6% y/y in 2024

In 2025-2026, growth will accelerate to 2.7% y/y

The World Bank (WB) has improved its expectations for global economic growth in 2024 to 2.6%, up from the 2.4% forecast in January. This was reported by Interfax-Ukraine with reference to the bank’s data.

In 2025-2026, growth will accelerate to 2.7% y/y. This is significantly lower than the average level of 3.1% recorded in the decade before the COVID-19 pandemic.

The forecast assumes that in 2024-2026, countries that collectively account for more than 80% of the world’s population and global GDP will continue to grow more slowly than in the pre-pandemic decade.

In emerging economies, the average annual GDP growth rate in 2024-2025 is expected to be 4%, slightly lower than last year. Growth in low-income countries will accelerate to 5% this year, compared to 3.8% in 2023.

In developed countries, the economy is expected to grow by 1.5% in 2024 and by 1.7% next year.

«Four years after the turmoil caused by the pandemic, conflicts, inflation, and monetary tightening, it seems that global economic growth is stabilizing. At the same time, the growth rate will not be as high as before 2020,” comments WB Chief Economist and Senior Vice President Indermit Gill.

Global inflation is expected to slow to 3.5% in 2024 and to 2.9% in 2025. However, this weakening is not as significant as predicted six months ago. As a result, central banks in many countries are expected to continue to act cautiously in cutting key interest rates.

Global interest rates are likely to remain high compared to recent decades and will average about 4% per annum in 2025-2026, which is about twice as high as the average in 2000-2019.

The US GDP is expected to grow by 2.5% in 2024 and by 1.8% in the next two years.

The eurozone economy, according to WB forecasts, will grow by 0.7% this year, by 1.4% in 2025 and by 1.3% in 2026. For Japan, these figures are expected to be 0.7%, 1% and 0.9%, for China – 4.8%, 4.1% and 4%, for Turkey – 3%, 3.8% and 4.3%, for Brazil – 2%, 2.2% and 2%.

As GMK Center reported earlier, Ukraine’s real GDP grew by 5.3% in 2023 compared to the previous year, when the decline was 28.8% y/y. In January-March 2024, the country’s economy grew by 4.5% y/y.