News Global Market EU 6502 20 March 2026
The regulator expects inflation to reach 2.6% in 2026 and has downgraded its economic growth forecast due to higher energy costs
Following its meeting on March 19, 2026, the European Central Bank (ECB) left its three key interest rates unchanged. The deposit facility rate remains at 2.00%, the main refinancing operations rate at 2.15%, and the marginal lending facility rate at 2.40%, according to a press release.
The ECB noted that it remains focused on bringing inflation back to its 2% target in the medium term. At the same time, the regulator acknowledged that the war in the Middle East has significantly increased the uncertainty of the macroeconomic outlook, creating risks of accelerating inflation and slowing economic growth. This is primarily due to rising energy prices, which are already affecting short-term inflation dynamics.
According to new forecasts by ECB experts, headline inflation in the eurozone will average 2.6% in 2026, 2.0% in 2027, and 2.1% in 2028. Compared to the December estimates, the forecast for 2026 has been revised upward, primarily due to rising energy costs. Inflation excluding energy and food is expected to be 2.3% in 2026, 2.2% in 2027, and 2.1% in 2028.
At the same time, the economic growth forecast for the eurozone has been downgraded. The ECB now expects GDP to grow by 0.9% in 2026, 1.3% in 2027, and 1.4% in 2028. The most significant downward revision to the forecast concerns 2026, which is attributed to the war’s impact on commodity markets, real household incomes, and business sentiment.
Despite this, the ECB believes that the eurozone economy is showing resilience thanks to low unemployment, sound private sector balance sheets, and government spending on defense and infrastructure. The regulator emphasized that it will continue to make decisions on a meeting-by-meeting basis, depending on new macroeconomic and financial data, without committing to a predetermined interest rate path.
As a reminder, gas prices in Europe continue to rise amid the conflict in the Middle East. During the first week of the escalation (March 2–6), average European gas prices rose by nearly 50% to €45/MWh (prior to the escalation, this figure stood at €31/MWh). On March 9, according to ICE, one-month TTF futures rose to €56.4/MWh—the highest level since mid-February 2025.
