Steel Dynamics forecasts lower earnings for Q4

The company points to the price factor and longer-than-planned downtime for maintenance

American steel producer Steel Dynamics (SDI) has lowered its profit forecast for the fourth quarter of 2025, according to a company statement.

SDI’s steel production profitability for the period is expected to be significantly lower than third-quarter results due to lower average selling prices and lower sales volumes related to both seasonal demand and planned maintenance shutdowns at the company’s flat-rolled steel plants.

Some planned maintenance outages were longer than expected and reduced flat product production in the fourth quarter of 2025 by approximately 140-150 thousand tons.

Average published index prices for hot-rolled coil fell by more than $70 per short ton from July to October 2025. This reduced the company’s sequential flat steel sales prices for the fourth quarter due to commercial contracts.

However, as noted by SDI, flat steel prices have improved recently as imports have declined and underlying demand has been seasonally stable.

The company’s metal processing earnings for the October-December 2025 quarter are expected to be lower than the sequential results of the previous quarter due to a decline in seasonal supplies, as the US steel industry experienced a series of planned seasonal technical disruptions, which, in particular, reduced demand for scrap.

At the same time, Steel Dynamics expects metal processing profits to decline in the fourth quarter, as the reduction in seasonal supplies outweighs the moderate increase in the spread. Current order activity is stable and is expected to grow in 2026. The company predicts that lower interest rates and support from US infrastructure programs and offshoring will have a positive impact on demand not only for structural steel, but also for flat and long products.

The company intends to announce its fourth quarter results before the market opens on January 26, 2026.

It should be noted that Steel Dynamics showed strong performance in the third quarter. In particular, the steel producer reported record steel shipments and an expansion in the spread between raw material (scrap) costs and the average selling price of steel products for the period.