Sentiment in the German auto industry continues to deteriorate

European automakers face high production costs and fierce competition

Sentiment in the German automotive industry continues to deteriorate. This is evidenced by an October survey by the Institute for Economic Research (Ifo).

According to the Ifo, 44.3% of the companies surveyed suffer from a lack of orders, the highest percentage since July 2020.

The seasonally adjusted business climate index for the German automotive industry fell to -27.7 points in October from -23.4 points in September. In addition, export expectations deteriorated again. This indicator fell to -32.8 points, the lowest level since the spring of 2020.

However, companies are less pessimistic about the coming months: the business expectations indicator rose to -27.9 points in October, compared to -31.8 points in September.

According to ifo industry expert Anita Wölffl, increased competition, especially from outside Europe, seems to be taking a toll on the sector, and the crisis in the German automotive industry continues.

In general, European car manufacturers are experiencing difficulties due to high production costs, fierce competition, and stagnant demand for electric vehicles in the main markets for these products, Kallanish reports.

In particular, in September, Volkswagen lowered its forecast for 2024, citing a difficult market environment and events that did not meet initial expectations. The automaker expects to deliver about 9 million vehicles to customers by the end of the year, compared to 9.24 million in 2023. The group’s sales revenue will amount to about €320 billion. In 2023, this figure amounted to €322.3 billion, while the previous forecast assumed an increase of up to 5% y/y.

According to Arnaud Antlitz, the Group’s CFO, the significant increase in orders in Western Europe in the third quarter compared to the same period last year is evidence of the strengthening of the company’s product line and provides a tailwind for the fourth quarter.

Audi Group, a part of VW, does not make forecasts, but notes that production is flexibly based on market demand for the respective model. The company also said that it has been cooperating with its steel suppliers for many years and has entered into framework agreements with them. Both direct and indirect steel purchases are guaranteed by long-term contracts with steel mills.

The Mercedes-Benz Group delivered stable sales in the third quarter despite the transition to new products, a challenging market environment and fierce competition, especially in China. However, the company notes that assumptions about the economic situation and the development of automotive markets are still characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty.

At the same time, Renault Group’s revenue in the first 9 months of this year increased by 0.8% year-on-year – to €37.7 billion. As noted in the company, the automaker has a solid order book in Europe of about 2 months of forward sales, which, in particular, promises a strong fourth quarter.

Skoda Auto is also bucking the general trend. The company’s deliveries in the first 9 months of the year increased by 4.5% year-on-year to 671.3 thousand vehicles. The growth was supported by a strong third quarter, when deliveries increased by 6% yoy.

At the end of October, Volkswagen called on its employees to take a 10% pay cut. In this way, the company seeks to maintain its competitiveness and jobs, and to obtain funds for future investments.