Russian invasion to Ukraine threatens the world with food shortages

Ukraine as the largest exporter of agriproducts could have problems with spring sowing campaign

Ukraine – is one of the largest exporters of agricultural products, that provided a number of countries with food. For example, Ukraine supplied about 50% of global sunflower oil exports during 2017-2021, 15% of corn exports, 15% of barley and 10% of wheat.

The spring sowing campaign should start at the end of March. Active hostilities, as well as a shortage of diesel and fertilizer, can lead to a disruption in the sowing campaign and difficulties in providing food on a global scale.

The sowing campaign of spring wheat usually starts at the end of March, sunflower – in mid-April, corn – in the second half of April. The first to begin work are the Southern regions, where active hostilities are underway today. In total, as of March 4th, 10 regions of Ukraine were covered by hostilities, which in total accounted for 54% of sunflower crops, 42% of corn, 52% of wheat.

Delay in sowing for 15-20 days may lead to yield reduction by up to 35%. If hostilities continue, then the sowing campaign in a number of regions may not be held at all.

First of all, there may be global problems with the supply of sunflower oil and corn. As for wheat, despite the fact that winter crops, which were carried out at the end of the year, occupy more than 90% of the total crops, the export of this product from Ukraine is unlikely.

Agricultural products are becoming more expensive. Corn futures added 14% during 25th of Feb to 04th of March, wheat – 40%. It creates risks for the food supply of the least well-off countries with the worsening humanitarian situation not only in Ukraine, but also in Africa and the Middle East.

Read more in the analyst study GMK Center.