Exclusive Iron ore exports from Ukraine may decline by 5% in 2026 – GMK Center forecast

The decline in exports to China in 2026 may be partially offset by growth in shipments to the EU

GMK Center forecasts a 5% decline in iron ore exports from Ukraine in 2026, or by 1.5 million tons, to 29 million tons. This forecast is based on a 7% decline in iron ore prices in China. The forecast is based on market factors without taking into account military risks, which could significantly change the situation. This is stated in the article “Forecasts for 2026: Iron Ore,” which will appear on the GMK Center website on Monday.

The key problem is the weak competitive position in the Chinese market. Ukrainian exporters are gradually losing this market, and in 2026, supplies may decline by 15–20%. The main reasons are the launch of the Simandou project in Guinea, which will bring 20 million tons of high-quality ore to the market, as well as the huge difference in logistics costs: the world’s largest exporters have a hundredfold advantage in delivering products to China.

The electricity shortage remains a serious challenge. In November, electricity prices in Ukraine were €140/MWh, 30% higher than in Poland. Given that electricity accounts for up to 60% of the cost of concentrate, this has a critical impact on the profitability of mining and processing plants.

At the same time, there is a positive factor – the EU market. Regulatory measures such as CBAМ and the new tariff quota system will significantly reduce steel imports to the EU. Local plants will be forced to increase production by 13–14%, which will create additional demand for iron ore. Exports from Ukraine to EU countries may grow by 10–15%, partially offsetting losses in the Chinese market.

As previously reported, Brazilian mining company Vale predicts that in 2026, iron ore prices will stabilize at around $100/t. In particular, an increase in supply from large mining companies, the development of the giant Simandou deposit in Guinea, and a gradual decline in demand from China are expected.