Global iron ore supply in 2026 will amount to 2.68 billion tons – Mysteel

Africa will be the key driver of growth in production volumes

Global iron ore supply could reach a record 2.68 billion tons in 2026, according to the latest forecast by Mysteel Global.

As noted, Africa will be the key driver of growth thanks to the phased launch of the Simandou project. In addition, iron ore mines in Australia and Brazil are continuing to expand their capacity.

Africa will account for 35% of global growth next year. Thanks to increased volumes at Simandou, production at the deposit in 2026 is forecast at 22 million tons.

Australia’s share next year will be 985.9 million tons. However, Mysteel notes uncertainty regarding BHP, as the company is in difficult pricing negotiations with China.

Brazil’s production volumes in 2026 are expected to reach 489.3 million tons. India is aiming for 295 million tons as the country moves to increase steel production.

According to Mysteel, global iron ore production will reach 2.61 billion tons this year, which is almost 33 million tons more than in 2024.

It should be recalled that in November this year, operations at the Simandou deposit officially started in Guinea. The project will become Africa’s largest mining and transport complex, exporting up to 120 million tons of ore annually.

As reported by GMK Center, global iron ore exports remained stable in October 2025, with high volumes of supplies from major producing countries. India accounted for most of the growth, while Australia and Brazil recorded moderate increases in shipments, and South Africa, on the contrary, reduced exports due to logistical difficulties.