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Inflation indicators

The results coincided with analysts' expectations

Inflation in the euro area in August 2024 rose by 2.2% compared to the same month in 2023. Thus, the indicator slowed down compared to July, when it was 2.6%. This is evidenced by preliminary data from Eurostat.

The consensus forecast of analysts, cited by Trading Economics, coincides with the results of August.

Core inflation, which excludes energy and food costs, also slowed to 2.8% in August compared to July. Energy prices fell by 3% after rising by 1.4% in July.

In August, the member states with the highest annual inflation rates were Belgium (4.5%), Estonia (3.4%), and the Netherlands (3.3%), while the lowest rates were recorded in Lithuania (0.7%) and Latvia (0.9%). In Germany, consumer prices rose by 2%, in Italy – by 1.3%, and in France – by 2.2%.

As GMK Center reported earlier, the seasonally adjusted GDP of the euro area and the European Union in April-June 2024 increased by 0.3% compared to the previous quarter. In the first quarter, the euro area and EU economies also grew by 0.3% q/q.

Among the EU member states, Ireland (+1.2%), Lithuania (+0.9%), and Spain (+0.8%) showed the highest quarterly GDP growth. The largest drops were recorded in Latvia (-1.1%), Sweden (-0.8%), and Hungary (-0.2%).

According to the European Central Bank, the euro area’s GDP will grow by 0.9% y/y in 2024, and by 1.4% y/y – in 2025. Inflation will be +2.5% this year and +2.2% next year. The euro area’s GDP is expected to grow by 1.6% in 2026, with inflation at 1.9%.