Exclusive European carbon prices hit two-year high in December

The market is preparing for supply restrictions from 2026

The base price for carbon (EUA) on December 15 (the last trading day for the current December contract and the last primary auction of the year) rose to a two-year high of €85/t, then fell to around €84.75/t, according to Montel.

This is the highest level since mid-October 2023. This year, the average price of the December 2025 contract, according to the publication’s calculations, was €74.31/t (approximately +12% to the average base price in 2024).

The market shifted its attention to the December 2026 contract, which will become the benchmark – its price rose to over €87/t on December 15 (+2.8% compared to the beginning of the month). There will be no additional quota auctions over the next three weeks due to the annual holiday break; they will resume on January 7, 2026.

The rise in carbon prices at the end of the year is typical for this period. However, the market is preparing for a supply shortage in 2026 and, as a result, upward price movements. As analysts note, this scenario may be influenced by significant long positions already accumulated by investment funds and pressure to postpone the reduction in free quotas as part of the implementation of CBAM.

It should also be noted that in December this year, the European Commission, the Council of the EU, and the European Parliament reached a compromise agreement on a legally binding climate target to reduce emissions by 90% compared to 1990 levels by 2040, while allowing for a 5% reduction through international carbon credits. The agreement also postpones the implementation of the revised ETS2 by one year, until 2028.

According to GMK Center’s forecast, by 2030, the average price of CO₂ emissions in the European Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) could reach €126/t. This figure is the consensus among estimates by leading analytical institutions, including BloombergNEF, ABN Amro, Refinitiv, ICIS, S&P Global, Aurora Energy Research, and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK).

The average price of CO₂ is expected to reach €85/t (+18.1% y/y) in 2026 and exceed the three-digit mark in 2027 (€100/t). Further growth will be aimed at approaching the 2030 consensus.