Carbon price in the EU in Q3 will settle at around €73.5/t – analysts

The average price forecast for the current year is €75.15/t

The average cost of carbon allowances in the EU (EUA) in the third quarter of 2025 will be €73.54/t. This is the forecast given by ten analysts surveyed by Reuters.

This is lower than the expectations expressed in April for the same period – €76.1/t.

US statements on trade tariffs have heightened fears of a slowdown in economic growth in Europe, which could trigger a decline in industrial production and, consequently, a reduction in demand for carbon emission allowances.

The average price forecast for the current year is €75.15/t (in April, it was expected to be €74.89/t), for 2026 – €91.08/t, and for 2027 – €108.7/t.

All analysts surveyed by the agency expect carbon prices to rise in the coming years amid a reduction in emission limits for sectors under the ETS.

Energy Aspects analyst Ben Lee noted that the market is expected to tighten significantly from 2026 onwards, as both auction supply and free allowances will decline from that year. In his opinion, investors should start taking this factor into account.

It should be recalled that carbon prices in the EU exceeded €70/t in June. During this period, the market reacted to fluctuations in energy prices, traders’ behavioral strategies, and expectations of new climate targets from the European Commission.

The average price of an EUA contract for December 2025, according to ICE, was €73/t in June. It fell by 2.8% over the month.