BMI maintains its coking coal price forecast for 2025 at $182/t

In the short term, prices will be affected by the decline in steel production in China

Analysts at research company BMI have maintained their 2025 coking coal price forecast at $182/t, Kallanish reports.

In a note, BMI said that although coking coal prices rose to almost $200/t in August and September of this year due to restocking, they are expected to decline to $175-185/t by the end of the year.

The company expects that this recent price spike will be counteracted by a further decline in steel production in China, while demand for imports of these products will be restrained by high domestic stocks.

At the same time, medium- and long-term expectations were revised upward due to the growth of steel capacity in India. It is expected that domestic coking coal production will no longer meet the needs of the sector by 2028-2029.

BMI has also maintained its forecast for this year’s steel production in China at just under 1 billion tons, which is due to a 2.8% year-on-year drop in production to 671.8 million tons in the first 8 months of 2025. Analysts believe that in the absence of serious incentives, consumption of steel products in the country will remain low due to the lack of construction activity.

According to a joint report by EY Parthenon and the Indian Steel Association, India will significantly increase its coking coal imports over the next decade. According to the forecasts, by 2030, supplies from abroad will reach 115 million tons, up from about 60 million tons in the 2023/2024 financial year. This will happen despite the government’s ambitious goals to reduce dependence on imports.