The OECD warns of a deepening crisis in the global steel industry

Excess capacity reached 640 million tons, and China's steel exports set a historic record in 2025

At the 99th session of the Steel Committee of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), participants noted a further deterioration of the situation in the global steel market due to rising global excess capacity, increasing trade distortions, and schemes to circumvent restrictions. The meeting on March 23–24, 2026, was attended by 288 representatives of governments, industry, and trade unions from 42 delegations.

According to the Committee’s assessment, global demand for steel has been declining for four consecutive years, with the rate of decline exceeding 2% in 2025. Despite an expected moderate recovery in 2026, the market remains under pressure, particularly due to uncertainty related to the conflict in the Middle East and its impact on energy and raw material security for steelmakers.

Global excess steel capacity rose to 640 million tons in 2025, exceeding the total steel production volume in OECD countries by more than 200 million tons. Global steelmaking capacity has been increasing for four consecutive years and reached a new high last year — 2.445 billion tons. The greatest growth is occurring outside the OECD — primarily in India, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East.

Participants paid particular attention to China, whose share of global excess capacity exceeded 50% in the second half of 2025. Against the backdrop of declining domestic demand, Chinese producers are increasingly directing excess production to foreign markets. In 2025, steel exports from China reached a record 131 million tons, nearly doubling over three years.

The OECD also noted that trade measures taken by member countries are already yielding initial results, but their effectiveness is undermined by the rise of schemes to circumvent tariffs and restrictions. In 2025 alone, 75 anti-dumping and countervailing investigations were initiated in the steel sector. Against this backdrop, the committee supported the intensification of the work of the Global Forum on Excess Steel Capacity, which is tasked with preparing a new framework for joint action to address the crisis by June 2026.

It should be noted that the OECD has significantly revised its estimate of Ukraine’s annual steel production capacity. Starting in 2023, this figure stands at 8 million tons per year, compared to 38.7 million tons in 2020. The sharp decline in estimates is due to the exclusion of plants located in the temporarily occupied Donetsk and Luhansk regions, as well as the use of updated data that more accurately reflect the actual production capabilities of facilities under Ukraine’s control.